MANILA, Philippines — State weather bureau PAGASA reported on Monday, March 9, 2026, that a Low Pressure Area (LPA) currently east of Mindanao has a medium chance of intensifying into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours. However, current models suggest it is unlikely to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
- Last Position: The LPA was spotted approximately 1,470 kilometers east of Mindanao.
- Probability: While it has a moderate chance of becoming a cyclone (tropical depression), its trajectory indicates it will stay outside the country’s maritime borders.
- Trough Effects: Even if it stays outside PAR, the trough (extension) of the LPA is already affecting the country. It is expected to bring cloudy skies, scattered rain, and thunderstorms over Visayas, Mindanao, Sorsogon, and Masbate for the next two to three days.
Meanwhile, the Northeast Monsoon (Amihan) continues to dominate weather patterns in Luzon and parts of the Visayas.
- Impact Areas: Cloudy skies with rains are expected in Cagayan Valley, Aurora, Quezon, and the Bicol Region.
- Metro Manila: The capital region will experience partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated light rains due to the monsoon.
- Gale Warning: High waves reaching up to five meters are expected along the northern and eastern coasts of Catanduanes and Northern Samar. PAGASA has advised fishers and small seacraft to avoid going out to sea in these areas.
The weather bureau also noted that while the Amihan is still present, the country is transitioning into the dry season. There are also early warnings regarding a potential El Niño development by July, which could lead to drier conditions in the coming months followed by a more intense rainy season.