The unexpected presence of a Russian attack submarine within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ) last week has raised concerns among experts, who suggest it may carry a message for the United States and its allies.
According to retired Rear Admiral Rommel Jude Ong, former vice commander of the Philippine Navy, the Russian Kilo-class, diesel-powered submarine’s reason for surfacing—citing rough weather—may not hold water.
“Submarines are not affected by surface weather. It’s possible they had a medical emergency or a machinery derangement,” Ong speculated.
Incident Details
The submarine, equipped with torpedoes and missiles, was spotted 80 nautical miles off Cape Calavite, Occidental Mindoro, on November 28. Responding to a radio challenge from the Philippine Navy’s BRP Jose Rizal, the submarine claimed it was en route to its base in Vladivostok after a naval exercise in Kota Kinabalu, Malaysia. It left Philippine waters that same afternoon.
The National Security Council clarified that the submarine was outside Philippine territorial waters but within the EEZ.
Possible Intentions
Experts suggest the submarine’s surfacing may have been deliberate.
“Submarines surface when used as a signaling tool. It means they have a message for a specific audience,” Ong explained.
He added that the target audience was most likely the United States:
“It’s like saying, ‘We are here, and we can cause chaos whenever we want.’”
Security analyst Renato De Castro echoed this, noting that the signal could also be directed toward the Philippines and Japan.
“Russia and China share a strategic alignment, challenging the US-led rules-based international order,” De Castro said.
Broader Geopolitical Context
This development aligns with increasing military cooperation between Russia and China, including joint drills conducted in the South China Sea earlier this year. The two nations have also resisted language supporting international maritime laws, such as in statements proposed for the East Asia Summit.
President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. expressed concern over the submarine’s presence, calling it “very worrisome.”
As of this writing, the Russian Embassy has yet to respond to requests for comment.