A country-specific report by Climate Analytics offers a roadmap for the Philippines to phase out fossil fuels and achieve a 1.5-degree future
Philippines, renewable energy, COP28, fossil fuels, climate change
At the ongoing 28th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) in Dubai, Environment Secretary Maria Antonia Yulo-Loyzaga stated that the Philippines will boost its call to developed countries to fulfill their commitments to developing countries. The Philippine delegation, she said, is “working in seven major negotiating work streams: loss and damage, climate finance, adaptation, the global stocktake, the just transition [toward] a renewable energy future, … mitigation, and Article 6 [of the Paris Agreement] for greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions reduction and avoidance.”
The 2015 Paris Agreement is a landmark international accord that calls for limiting the increase in the global average temperature to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius and the reduction of GHG emissions by 45 percent by 2030, to reach net zero by 2050.
There is nothing wrong in a shotgun approach of targeting many goals at the same time, particularly in the marketing field. But in more efficient organizations, goals are specified and prioritized into what is the most achievable with the highest degree of positive impact, and putting a timeline on the activities needed to achieve it as soon as possible. For the Philippines, the most critical, as far as many environment groups are concerned, is a major push to shift to renewable energy and move away from fossil fuels.
1.5 degrees future is possible
Days before COP28 opened last week, the Center for Energy, Ecology, and Development (CEED) had urged the Philippine mission led by Yulo-Loyzaga to prioritize this agenda. As CEED deputy executive director Avril de Torres pointed out, “putting an end to the Philippines’ push for massive additional fossil fuel use … is an urgent policy shift that can get us on track” to the Paris Agreement target.
Climate Analytics, a global climate science and policy institute backed by various international organizations such as the UN Environment Programme, the European Commission, and the World Bank, released only last month a country-specific report titled “A 1.5 [degrees] future is possible: getting fossil fuels out of the Philippine power sector.” It described the study as the most detailed scenario modeling for the Philippine power sector to date. Its key finding is that “[t]he Philippines must urgently phase out coal-fired power by 2035, and almost entirely phase out gas-fired power generation by 2040.” Although this may sound too ambitious to local officials and industry players, the report concluded that it is not only feasible, but will also benefit the economy and provide more than a million jobs by 2050.
Fossil fuel phaseout
The Germany-based Climate Analytics describes in detail what the Philippine government needs to do to get the country’s power sector onto an emissions pathway compatible with the Paris deal. It offers concrete policy suggestions for the Philippines to accelerate the fossil fuel phase-out. Warning that while the Philippines is on the global warming frontline given its archipelagic structure that increases its susceptibility to rising sea levels and changing weather patterns, fossil fuels still dominate the country’s energy system, accounting for 78 percent of power generation in 2022.
The report also recommends that the Philippines:
- Accelerate the deployment of renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power.
- Implement energy efficiency measures across all sectors of the economy.
- Invest in grid modernization to accommodate the increasing share of renewables.
- Provide financial and technical support to communities affected by the transition away from fossil fuels.
The Philippine government has made some progress on renewable energy, but it needs to do much more to meet its Paris Agreement commitments. The Climate Analytics report provides a roadmap for the Philippines to achieve a 1.5-degree future, and it is now up to the government to show that it is serious about addressing the climate crisis.