TUGUEGARAO CITY, Cagayan — Already reeling from severe, multi-billion-peso crop damage, Cagayan Valley is bracing for a highly probable shift into a “strong” El Niño cycle starting next month. State meteorologists warn that the incoming extreme weather phenomenon will persist through the end of 2026, threatening the region’s water security, agricultural baseline, and public health.
Engineer Romeo Ganal Jr., chief of the PAGASA Northern Luzon Forecasting Center, confirmed that while the region is currently transiting an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral phase, climate models indicate a 79 percent chance of a full El Niño development during the June-July-August window.
The climate warning lands on an agricultural sector that has already been pushed to its absolute limits by prolonged dry spells earlier in the year:
- Cagayan Province: The provincial government has officially declared a State of Calamity after tallying staggering agricultural losses exceeding ₱10 billion due to water scarcity and dried-up farmlands.
- Isabela Province: Mirroring its neighbor, Isabela has likewise entered a formal State of Calamity, with local officials recording billions of pesos in ruined corn and rice crops.
- Fisheries Impact: Local aquaculture keepers are reporting a dual crisis: rapidly declining water levels in key breeding structures combined with elevated water temperatures, which are beginning to cause localized fish mortality rates.
The climate pressure has manifested in punishing daily temperatures. On Friday, May 15, PAGASA logged a blistering heat index of 46°C (Extreme Danger zone) in Tuguegarao City.
The severe heat provided a stifling backdrop for President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who arrived in the regional capital on Friday for official provincial visits, forcing waiting crowds to heavily rely on improvised paper fans for relief. The heat index moderated slightly on Saturday, lowering to a still-punishing 42°C. Ganal warned that these sustained high-heat thresholds significantly elevate the regional risk for severe dehydration, heat exhaustion, and heatstroke among outdoor laborers and rural villagers.
One of the most complex operational challenges of the pre-development phase is a volatile atmospheric mix driven by the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat):
- Erratic Deluges: Despite the overarching drought conditions, PAGASA noted that parts of Northern Luzon will still experience brief bursts of above-normal rainfall between June and August.
- Short-Lived Storms: Ganal explained that these monsoon-driven downpours will be highly concentrated and short-lived, lasting anywhere from 30 minutes to two hours.
- The Double Hazard: Rather than effectively replenishing parched aquifers, these violent, sudden bursts are expected to trigger flash floods on hardened, hyper-dry topsoil, complicating farming logistics without easing the long-term water deficit.
As the region edges closer to the June transition, localized discontent is growing among remote farming sectors. Many smallholder groups have voiced frustration over what they describe as completely inadequate and slow-moving national support mechanisms to buffer their financial losses.
While the Department of Agriculture (DA) has proposed quick-turnaround measures—such as shifting dried fields toward less water-intensive crops like mung beans and cassava, alongside deploying solar-powered irrigation pumps—critics point out that these tactical adjustments are often ineffective when main reservoir levels, such as the Magat Dam, drop near critical operational thresholds.