MANILA, Philippines — The Department of Agriculture (DA) has sounded the alarm over a potential “super” El Niño event that could severely impact the country’s agricultural productivity in the final quarter of 2026. Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. warned on Friday, April 24, 2026, that with the 92-percent probability of a moderate-to-strong event, the government is now preparing for worst-case scenarios to safeguard food security.
The warning comes as the sector already faces significant pressure from high fuel prices, which have inflated production and transport costs for local farmers.
Data from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) indicates a looming climate crisis:
- High Probability: There is a 92-percent chance of a moderate to strong El Niño occurring in Q4 2026.
- Extreme Warming: Some global models suggest a “super” El Niño with warming projections of up to 2.2 degrees Celsius, according to the Philippine Rice Research Institute (PhilRice).
- Water Scarcity: Such a scenario would result in significantly reduced rainfall and strained water resources across major agricultural hubs like Central Luzon and Western Visayas.
The DA’s urgency is fueled by the devastating losses recorded in 2024, where a previous El Niño episode significantly undermined the national harvest:
- Massive Losses: The agriculture sector incurred ₱57.78 billion in damage in 2024, a 136-percent surge from previous years.
- Decline in Production: Crop production fell by 4.2 percent, while the livestock sector saw a 4.3 percent decline.
- Overall Shrinkage: The total agriculture sector shrank by 2.2 percent in 2024, totaling ₱483.58 billion.
In response to the “super” El Niño threat, Secretary Tiu Laurel has directed the Masagana Rice Industry Development Program to implement several mitigation strategies:
- Crop Diversification: Shifting from water-intensive rice to “less thirsty” crops such as mung beans and other legumes.
- Infrastructure Rollout: Accelerating the installation of solar-powered irrigation systems to ensure farmers have access to water even during prolonged dry spells.
- Irrigation Management: Coordinating with the National Irrigation Administration (NIA) to optimize water allocation for high-priority agricultural zones.
- Adjusted Calendars: Recalibrating planting schedules based on updated rainfall projections to minimize crop exposure to the peak heat months.
While the threat to the upcoming harvest is high, current inventories for some commodities remain stable:
- Sugar: The Philippine Sugar Millers Association (PSMA) assured that raw sugar stocks are up by 9.59 percent, reaching over 677,000 metric tons. Refined sugar inventory also surged by 38 percent.
- Rice: Concerns remain high regarding rice imports. With the potential for reduced domestic production, officials are closely monitoring international markets to ensure a steady supply and prevent price spikes.
The looming El Niño is compounded by global shocks, including the Middle East war, which has kept fuel and fertilizer prices elevated. Agriculture officials emphasize that the combination of climate extremes and high input costs creates a “perfect storm” for the country’s food systems, necessitating a unified and rapid national response.