MANILA — The Philippine peso weakened to a new all-time low of ₱59.425 per US dollar on January 13, 2026, closing at ₱59.425 (down ₱0.075 or 0.13% from the previous session), as the greenback regained strength amid renewed global risk aversion and expectations of a slower pace of US Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The peso’s slide marks the third consecutive session of depreciation and the lowest level ever recorded, surpassing the previous intraday low of ₱59.40 set earlier in January. Trading volume remained moderate, but the move reflects continued pressure from external factors.
Key Drivers of the Peso’s Decline
- Stronger US Dollar — The US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded above 108.50, supported by:
- Higher-than-expected US inflation data (CPI prints)
- Reduced expectations for aggressive Fed easing in 2026 (markets pricing in only ~75–100 bps of cuts)
- Safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions and equity market pullback
- Global Risk-Off Mood — US stocks retreated from records; oil prices jumped — both hurting emerging-market currencies like the peso.
- Domestic Factors — Lingering governance concerns (flood control scandal fallout) and below-target GDP growth continue to weigh on sentiment, limiting peso upside even when BSP rates were cut.
- BSP Stance — Governor Eli Remolona Jr. has repeatedly said the central bank prefers a market-determined exchange rate and will only intervene during “disorderly” movements. No aggressive defense seen so far.
Peso Performance Snapshot (Recent Weeks)
| Date | Closing Rate | Change vs Previous | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | ₱58.79 | — | End-2025 close |
| Jan 6, 2026 | ₱59.10 | -0.31 | Early January slide begins |
| Jan 10, 2026 | ₱59.35 | -0.25 | Previous record low |
| Jan 13, 2026 | ₱59.425 | -0.075 | New all-time low |
Outlook & Analyst Views
- Short-Term — Analysts expect the peso to test ₱59.50–59.70 in the near term if dollar strength persists and BSP remains hands-off.
- Medium-Term — Gradual recovery toward ₱57–58 possible in H2 2026 if:
- Governance concerns ease
- Infrastructure spending accelerates
- Global rates peak and Fed cuts resume
- HSBC & Nomura — Both recently cut their 2026 peso forecasts, citing slower growth and persistent external headwinds.
For businesses and households: the stronger dollar raises import costs (fuel, food, raw materials) and debt servicing burdens for dollar-denominated loans — adding to inflationary pressure despite low headline CPI.
Here are charts showing the peso’s recent depreciation trend, USD/PHP intraday movement on Jan 13, and year-to-date performance vs regional peers.
The peso’s record low underscores ongoing challenges — but also highlights the urgency of restoring investor confidence in 2026.