MANILA – The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a forecast for scattered to widespread rain showers across several parts of Luzon on Thursday, December 11, 2025, as the shear line converges with the northeast monsoon (amihan) to bring moderate to heavy downpours. The system poses risks of flash floods and landslides in low-lying and mountainous areas, urging residents to stay vigilant amid the holiday rush.
The shear line – that volatile boundary where warm southern air clashes with the amihan’s cool northern flow – will drive intermittent rains in the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR), Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, and Aurora, while lighter showers are expected in Central Luzon and the rest of CALABARZON. PAGASA’s 5 a.m. advisory highlighted the potential for rapid accumulation, with Badrina noting: “Even moderate rains can swell rivers quickly – monitor local alerts closely.”
No gale warnings are active, but the amihan could gust winds up to 40 kph over northern Luzon, stirring moderate seas (2-3 meters) along eastern coasts. Temperatures hold steady at 24-32°C nationwide, with Metro Manila seeing highs of 30°C.
Forecast Breakdown by Region
- CAR, Cagayan Valley, Aurora: Cloudy with scattered moderate to heavy rains (50-150 mm/24 hrs); high flood/landslide risk.
- Ilocos Region, Central Luzon: Partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated showers (25-100 mm); occasional thunderstorms.
- CALABARZON, Metro Manila: Mostly cloudy with light to moderate rains (10-50 mm); isolated bursts in the afternoon.
- Rest of Luzon: Partly cloudy with isolated light showers.
PAGASA is also eyeing a low-pressure area east of Mindanao for possible development, but it poses no immediate threat. As Simbang Gabi kicks off, Badrina’s tip: “Pack ponchos and skip flood-prone spots – safety first for the festivities.”
Weather Snapshot (Dec 11, 2025):
| Region | Conditions | Rainfall (24 hrs) | Temp (°C) |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR/Cagayan Valley | Scattered heavy rains | 50-150 mm | 22-29 |
| Ilocos/Central Luzon | Isolated showers/thunder | 25-100 mm | 24-31 |
| Metro Manila | Light to moderate rains | 10-50 mm | 25-30 |