MANILA – With La Niña conditions firmly entrenched and poised to linger through early February 2026, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued an early alert for heightened typhoon activity and increased rainfall across the country, attributing the wetter-than-usual weather to the phenomenon’s influence on ocean temperatures and monsoon patterns. The advisory, shared during a recent Bagong Pilipinas Ngayon interview, comes after an already stormy year with 23 tropical cyclones slamming Philippine shores – far exceeding the normal 19-20 – and one more expected before the year wraps up.
PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis explained that La Niña, which escalated from a Watch to an Alert in September after emerging as early as August, is supercharging rainfall by interacting with the northeast monsoon (amihan). “As early as August and September, we experienced typhoons, especially in the Luzon, Western Visayas, and Bicol area,” Solis noted, highlighting how the event has already amplified downpours in vulnerable spots. The system is forecast to stick around until the first or second week of February, potentially delaying the onset of the dry season and keeping the archipelago on edge.
Expected Impacts: Wetter Weather and Regional Risks
La Niña’s cool Pacific waters are expected to fuel above-average storm numbers and rainfall, with the following hotspots in the crosshairs:
- Northern and Central Luzon: Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Region, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, and Calabarzon – bracing for enhanced monsoon rains and potential cold surges.
- Southern Luzon and Visayas: Mimaropa, Bicol Region, and the entire Visayas, where early typhoons have already left scars.
- Mindanao: Davao Region, Soccsksargen, Caraga, Zamboanga Peninsula, and Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, facing prolonged wet spells.
Solis emphasized the amplified risks: “That’s why we gave an early warning on the possible higher rain and typhoon levels this year.” While exact storm counts beyond the one anticipated remain fluid, the pattern points to a busier-than-normal close to 2025 and a soggy start to 2026. Cold snaps from amihan are also on tap, with Baguio City temperatures dipping to 11.4–14.3°C in December and chilling further to 7.9–11.8°C from January to February.
Advice and Preparedness: Stay Vigilant Amid Holiday Cheer
PAGASA urged residents in flood-prone and landslide-risk areas to monitor updates closely, secure loose items, and avoid travel during heavy downpours. “It will get colder in the following weeks and months… we will feel what we call cold surges,” Solis added, advising light clothing for the chill. For the holiday season, with Simbang Gabi and family reunions on the horizon, the agency recommended packing rain gear and checking forecasts via the PAGASA app or website.
Solis wrapped with a note of caution on future shifts: “We can’t see clearly if we will have El Niño next year. However, at the end of La Niña, it is possible… that the warm and dry season may start already.” As the archipelago dances with another wet watch, PAGASA’s clarion call is clear: Prepare, persevere, and let the rains be a reminder – in the Philippines, resilience is our rainy-day fund.
La Niña Impacts Snapshot:
| Aspect | Forecast Details |
|---|---|
| Duration | Until early February 2026 |
| Storms Expected | 1 more by year-end; above-average overall |
| Rainfall Boost | Enhanced in Luzon, Visayas, Mindanao |
| Cold Surges | Baguio: 11.4–14.3°C (Dec); 7.9–11.8°C (Jan-Feb) |
| Risks | Floods, landslides, typhoon surges |