MANILA – As Filipinos fine-tune their holiday cheer, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is waving a cautionary flag for the eastern seaboard, forecasting heavy to intense rainfall from a low-pressure area (LPA) and a shear line convergence starting Wednesday, December 3, 2025. The system, packing a punch that could spawn flash floods and landslides, has a high likelihood of intensifying into a tropical depression within 24 hours, potentially christened “Wilma” upon entry into the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR).
The LPA, last spotted 1,210 kilometers east-southeast of southeastern Luzon, is expected to evolve rapidly, bringing scattered to widespread rains over Eastern Visayas, Bicol Region, and Caraga, with isolated bursts in the rest of Visayas and Mindanao. The shear line – that volatile frontline where warm southern air clashes with the northeast monsoon’s chill – will amplify the deluge in Cagayan Valley, Aurora, and Quezon, where 100-200 mm of rain could tumble in 24 hours, PAGASA warned. “Moderate to heavy rainfall is likely, especially in low-lying and mountainous areas – flash floods and landslides pose significant risks,” urged weather specialist Obet Badrina, advising residents to monitor updates and avoid flood-prone zones.
No gale warnings are up yet, but rough seas could churn in the eastern and northern seaboards, a headache for fisherfolk and ferry routes. Temperatures hold steady at 24-32°C nationwide, but the rains could chill the festive mood, clashing with Simbang Gabi pilgrimages and province hops. By Thursday, the system might track northwest, eyeing a possible landfall in extreme Northern Luzon or Cagayan Valley, though models remain fluid.
Badrina’s bottom line? “Stay alert, especially in vulnerable spots – this LPA could pack a wallop if it strengthens.” In a season of lights and longing, PAGASA’s plea is simple: Pack the ponchos, heed the howls, and let the rains be a backdrop, not a blackout, to the holidays.