MANILA – As the holiday weekend winds down, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is forecasting a fresh wave of rainy weather blanketing much of the archipelago on Monday, December 1, 2025, driven by a trio of weather systems: the northeast monsoon (amihan), the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the easterlies. While the downpours are expected to be mostly isolated or scattered, PAGASA urges residents in vulnerable areas to brace for potential flash floods and landslides, especially during intense thunderstorms.
The 4 a.m. advisory paints a picture of patchy but persistent precipitation across regions, with varying intensities based on local influences. Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon (excluding Palawan) will see isolated rain showers courtesy of the easterlies – those warm, moist winds blowing from the Pacific. Further south, the ITCZ – the equatorial band where northern and southern air masses collide – will fuel scattered rains and thunderstorms over Eastern Visayas, Caraga, and the Davao Region, while isolated bursts are likely in the rest of Mindanao. Batanes, up north, faces cloudy skies with light rains from the amihan, and the rest of Visayas plus Palawan could encounter spotty showers from localized thunderstorms.
“Moderate to heavy rains are possible in affected areas, particularly during severe thunderstorms,” PAGASA cautioned, highlighting risks in low-lying spots and mountainous terrains where runoff could turn roads into rivers. No gale warnings are up, but mariners in the eastern and northern seaboards should monitor for rough seas. Temperatures remain seasonably mild: Metro Manila hovering between 24°C and 31°C, with Baguio’s chill dipping to 17°C to 23°C and Davao’s warmth at 24°C to 33°C.
PAGASA’s outlook for the next few days hints at no major reprieve: The shear line and amihan tag-team could linger through Tuesday, keeping eastern Luzon on edge, while ITCZ activity simmers in the south. By mid-week, fairer skies might peek through, but isolated storms remain a wildcard. For now, the message is clear: Umbrellas at the ready, and vigilance for those flood-prone paths – because in the Philippines, even December’s cheer comes with a splash of unpredictability.