The Endgame

We’re in the endgame now.”

That line was spoken by Doctor Strange in Avengers: Infinity War. In that scene- which was the penultimate defeat for the heroes before “the snap”- Thanos had just gained the Time Stone and had left the planet Titan for Wakanda where the final battle for the Mind Stone would be fought.

We’re also in the endgame of the 2022 campaign. What does the endgame look like for our candidates? Recently, Laylo Research Strategies leaked the results of their survey for the period of April 14 to 20, 2022. The survey, which had 3000 respondents and a margin of error (MOE) of ± 2%, showed former Senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. in first place with 64% voting preference. This marked an increase of 3%- just above the MOE- compared to his March preference rating of 61%.

Vice-President Leni Robredo remained in second place, with 21%. This was also an increase of 2% compared to her March rating of 19%. Her increase was within the MOE, and thus statistically insignificant.

How does this compare to the other surveys? The OCTA survey- which was conducted from April 2-6, with 1,200 respondents and an MOE of ± 3%- shows a smaller but still significant lead for the frontrunner. Marcos led all candidates with 57%. However, Robredo increased her preference rating by seven points, from 15% in February to 22% in April.

Pulse Asia and SWS have yet to release surveys for the month of April. However, the last Pulse Asia Survey- conducted March 17 to 21, covering 2,400 respondents and with an MOE of ±2%- showed Marcos Jr. declining by four points, from 60% in February to 56% in March. In contrast, Robredo, gained nine points- from 15% to 24%.

In all of these surveys, a clear picture emerges- Marcos Jr. still retains a big lead. The buffer between him and Robredo ranges between 30-40%, depending on the specific survey. On the other hand, Robredo has finally broken her glass ceiling of 20%, but only in final 30 days of the campaign. The only question now is whether or not Robredo can reach (or breach) 25% in the final two weeks- and conversely, if Marcos will coast and emerge as the first majority President of the fifth republic.

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