OCTA predicts hitting 1M COVID-19 cases before end-April

IMG SOURCE: CNN Philippines

MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines may reach one million coronavirus cases before the end of April, according to OCTA Research group.

“The one million total cases, that will be breached before the end of April based on projections that we’re seeing,” OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said on Monday.

In a virtual briefing, David said the one-week hard lockdown imposed over the Greater Manila area brought slight improvements in the situation, with the reproduction number decreasing from 1.9 to 1.6.

The growth rate also slowed down to a 20% increase from the 50% to 60% increase recorded every week before the implementation of enhanced community quarantine.

However, the Philippines will still record 11,000 to 12,000 daily new COVID-19 cases “for the next week or so,” David said.

He explained the country will first see a decrease in the upward trend before it could achieve the downward trend.

“The cases are still increasing, but the rate of increase is slowing down,” David also said.

“Hopefully with the additional one week ECQ, we can reduce further the reproduction number to 1 or close to 1,” he added.

Dr. Butch Ong, another OCTA Research fellow who was also at the briefing, said that while the trends are going down, “it’s still early to say if it’s going down enough.”

Ong expressed hopes that with the extension of ECQ, the government will strictly implement quarantine controls, and for the public to stick to lockdown rules.

Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, and Rizal remain under the strictest community quarantine status for at least another week as COVID-19 cases continue to surge.


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